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The IMF warns of deepening global economic slowdown but praises Swedish crisis management

Tuesday, 09 October 2012
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its forecast for global economic growth to 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013, saying that global economic slowdown is worsening.

As it cut its growth forecasts for the second time since April, it also warned U.S. and European policymakers that failure to fix their economic ills would prolong the slump.

Global growth slowed again during the second quarter of 2012 after rebounding during the first. The slowing has been observed in all regions but the EU and the USA in particular have been called to do something and to drive the world economy. 

Therefore the gloomier forecast for global growth is based on the crises in the euro zone and that the U.S. may go into a recession, which is likely if Congress can not settle on a budget for next year and raise the national debt ceiling before the end of the year.

"A key issue is whether the global economy is just hitting another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a slow and bumpy recovery or whether the current slowdown has a more lasting component," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook, released ahead of its twice-yearly meeting, which will be held in Tokyo later this week.

In a separate report, the IMF lifted Sweden as a country with successful crisis management strategy. For the Swedish part of the IMF, it is expected that growth of 1.2 percent could be realised this year and 2.2 percent in 2013. That compares with the Riksbank's forecast of 1.5 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2013 and the forecast in Finance Anders Borg's autumn budget of 1.6 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2013.

The Swedish unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 7.7 percent in 2013 from this year's estimated average of 7.5 percent, according to the IMF. The Government is expected in the autumn budget to have a decline in the unemployment rate next year to 7.5 percent.

In a separate report on state finances the IMF's economists highlights Sweden as a positive example in crisis since the Lehman Brothers collapse 2008 when things went right down. In 2009, there was budget deficit in Sweden to just 1 percent of GDP, notes the IMF, which also highlights how the Swedish government debt has gradually declined since.
Scancomark.com Team


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