Need for more to work more in Sweden if the welfare system is to survive

Wednesday, 27 June 2012
The fractured and segregated Swedish job market must integrate but necessity of the country is to maintain its welfare system in the future.

This had led to the older people and people born abroad to be called to work more to cope with the welfare system by 2030. To maintain the same dependency burden as today in 2030, almost 600 000 more people will have to be employed. The percentage of the population who work will have to increase in several labour market groups to achieve this.

Higher employment rates among older people and foreign born persons would have the greatest effect on future employment. If the percentage of the population aged 16 – 74 in gainful employment – the employment rate – remains on the same level as it is today, employment is expected to increase by almost 140 000 people by 2030.

Since the total population is increasing at a faster rate, this will lead to the dependency burden (the total population/the employed population aged 16-74 years) rising from 2.14 in 2010 to 2.35 in 2030. Every gainfully employed person will hence have to “provide for” 2.35 persons including themselves in 2030 compared to 2.14 persons in 2010. For the dependency burden to develop at a slower rate, more people will have to work.

For the dependency ratio will remain at current levels required an increase in employment for several populations simultaneously. Employment among foreign born persons is of substantial significance

Foreign born persons will become increasingly important for employment in the future as they are expected to make up the entire increase in the working-age population up until 2030. The employment rate among foreign born persons is currently much lower than it is among native born persons. If foreign born employment rates come 50 percent closer to those of native born persons, it is estimated that employment among 16-74 year-olds will increase by 330 000 persons by 2030. If the difference is reduced by as much as 75 percent, employment will increase by 430 000 persons. But not even in this case will the number of employed persons increase enough to maintain the dependency burden at its current level.

The fact that younger people are starting to work earlier and that women are working to a greater extent than today has much less effect on the future dependency burden.
By Scancomark.se Team / News source: Statistic Sweden

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